Crown Castle reported “solid” results for the fourth quarter 2024 last week, including 4.5 percent consolidated organic growth, according to Steven Moskowitz, president and CEO at Crown Castle. The results were similar to the growth reported by the public towercos, during their Q4 earnings calls.
“The wireless carriers’ level of activity continues to be a positive as they fortify their networks with new spectrum and new equipment,” said Moskowitz.
Other Tower Companies See Active Carriers
The 2025 outlook for wireless capex spend is expected to return to higher levels again, totaling approximately $35 billion, which is $5 billion above the average annual spend during the 4G deployment, according to Steve Vondran, president and CEO, American Tower.
Brandon Cavanaugh, president and CEO of SBA Communications, said he is not too concerned about the overall capex budgets being relatively flat, because of the activity he is seeing on the ground. “There is a lot more activity around their wireless networks, and specifically the macro based networks,” Cavanaugh said.
American Tower saw sequential acceleration in applications in the fourth quarter 2024, which actually doubled year over year. In fact, over the last year, American Tower saw four quarters of sequential acceleration in application activity.
Where’s the Demand Coming From?
Tower CEOs spoke of the importance of C Band spectrum to the carrier’s deployment activities, during the earnings calls. Collocations rose at SBA and American Tower. There is also some evidence of densification and equipment deployment due to data demand caused by fixed wireless access and maybe even the lack of an additional spectrum allocation.
Most of the work on Crown Castle’s sites continues to be 5G overlays, according to Moskowitz. When and if the towerco’s customers shift toward densification, Moskowitz believes his company’s towers will be well positioned to capture the activity.
Leasing applications are centered on continued deployments by carriers of their mid-band spectrum, primarily C band, to add or swap out 5G equipment. Most leasing activity overlays existing coverage areas, but there are some first time installs, Moskowitz said.
A higher percentage of SBA’s applications came from new lease collocations versus amendments to existing leases, according to Cavanaugh.
“Our carrier customers continue to expand their 5G mid-band coverage, adding capacity for fixed wireless access, as well as extending network coverage into areas of the country that have little to no cell coverage today,” said Cavanaugh.
American Tower is receiving applications for a “healthy mix” of amendments and collocations from the carriers with a rise in new collocations across its portfolio.
“[The carrier activity] is a combination of continuing to expand the reach of the network into some more rural areas, but also some early stage densification,” Vondran said. “The Big Three carriers have upgraded an average of 65 percent of American Tower’s sites with mid-band spectrum, up from 50 percent a year ago.”
What’s Next?
Crown Castle expects organic growth of 4.5 percent in towers in 2025, excluding the impact of Sprint consolidation and churn, with customers’ activity levels being similar to 2024, according to Moskowitz. American Tower expects 2025 organic tenant billings growth of 4.3-5.3 percent in the U.S., driven by mid-band spectrum upgrades and new business.
“We expect the solid, stable level of demand for our tower assets we experienced in 2024 to persist into 2025, resulting in a second consecutive year of 4.5 percent tower organic growth, Moskowitz said.
SBA is also off to a strong start in 2025, according to Cavanaugh. SBA expects another quarter-over-quarter increase in new leasing business and services to begin this year. “Our U.S. customers are busy, and we expect to be a key partner for them this year,” he said.
With mobile network traffic growing more than 15 percent annually, Vondran expects the required network capacity to more than double with more connected devices and data intensive applications placing a strain on the networks.
“The 5G investment cycle is largely aligned with our expectations, with recent commentary, dialog and activity further reinforcing our conviction that sustained higher capex will be needed moving forward over the next five years,” Vondran said. “The next phase of AI-driven demand will benefit our towers and data centers and unlock synergistic value between the two at the edge.”
Vondran added that 35 percent of mobile data traffic, which currently runs over 5G networks today, is expected to increase to 80 percent by 2030, prompting carriers to enhance and expand their networks.
