The trip from 5G to 6G may be a bumpy one for macro and Massive MIMO base station sales and it is not clear where it ends up, according to analysis by Mobile Experts. The analyst firm forecasts a major shift in spending on mobile infrastructure from hardware to software.
“The good news is both Nokia and Ericsson made some positive comments in their recent earnings announcements that their revenue has stabilized,” Joe Madden, principal analyst at Mobile Experts, said. “Now that the period of falling revenues is over, they expect stability going forward.”
Mobile Experts’ Macro and Massive-MIMO Base Stations and Transceivers 2025 forecast shows declines in radio shipment numbers through 2028 with renewed shipments in 2029/2030. 5G Advanced is a collection of at least 20 different features, such as enhanced uplink, most of them are software upgrades at the base station level.
“Concerning the number of base stations that will be deployed with 5G, 5G Advanced and 6G, the picture still looks a little grim for the near to medium term, but it will pick up in the long term,” Madden said. “Companies that support hardware, chip companies, RF component companies, cable suppliers, antenna suppliers — they’re still going to see a declining market for some time.”
However, an increase in software upgrades will provide new sources of revenue for radio manufacturers, because of the capabilities of virtual RAN technology. “We actually see some very encouraging signs for software sales,” Madden said. “On top of those hardware shipments, there will be many different kinds of software upgrades, which add revenue to the mix.”
6G Deployment Will Not be Nationwide
The uptick in hardware sales in 2029/2030 will be the result of the beginning of the 6G cycle, and there will be a dramatic rise in the raw capacity of the hardware that’s being shipped into the field. Additionally, new spectrum will be deployed. But the impact on capex will be less than with previous generations.
“We’re anticipating a smaller 6G surge in investment,” Madden said. “As opposed to a nationwide buildout, 6G will be implemented in hotspot deployments to take care of capacity problems.”
The first generation of cellular infrastructure was introduced in 1979, and, since then, a new generation has been introduced every 10 years. Each generation has cost in the tens of billions of dollars (just the spectrum for 5G alone cost $81 billion), and the carriers are still waiting for a return on investment from their roll out of 5G.
“The mobile operators are tired of doing what they call forklift upgrades every time a new generation of cellular comes around,” Madden said.
Also impacting carrier’s capex decisions, the cost per gigabyte (GB) of mobile data is no longer dropping and will actually be higher for 6G than the cost per GB for 5G in some countries, according Cost per GB Forecast for 6G, another report by Mobile Experts. Additionally, new spectrum allocations appear to be weak for new mobile services, according to Madden.
Due to the shorter wave propagation in the bands targeted for 6G, there will be a shift from the outdoor macrocellular style of wireless deployment to a small cells, according to Madden. In the future, in order to grow their revenues, carriers will need to adapt their networks to the needs of enterprises with tailored solutions and increase their capacity in high traffic areas surgically through the use of small cells, he added.
“We will have problems with penetrating through the walls of buildings with the higher frequency bands, so we will need more small cells for these 6G frequency bands inside of buildings,” Madden said.
Some interesting advancements will be made in 6G MIMO antennas. Current 32-radio and 64-radio configurations will expand to 256, 1000 or even more radios.
“We’ll get more and more complexity in the radio hardware, and that will increase cell site capacity and extend the coverage so we can use the higher frequency bands in outdoor cases,” Madden said.
The impact of artificial intelligence on wireless networks is the wildcard going into the future. Demand from AI applications will drive the need for additional capacity in the network beginning in the 2028 timeframe, according to Mobile Experts projections.
“AI brings a very interesting arms race in the market,” Madden said. “On the one hand, we have AI on our phones driving more and more demand for the network. But also, at the same time, we have AI improving the capacity of the existing network.” If the demand from AI on the phones outstrips the capacity of the network, more equipment will be deployed at the towers.
